As we now move within two weeks of Election Day, we look today at the third necessary component of a “wave election”, which is tilting the typical playing field for an election via turnout. Prior to this, we looked at the need for the Democrats to generate a vast playing field (check!), and we looked at the need for candidates to have the financial resources to compete late in the game (holy crap...check!). Your party can have ample money to broadcast your message, and your party can manage to benefit from a ton of races that are within range of success, but those things alone will not bring the avalanche of seats falling on Election Day. The base has to get out, and your party has to pluck the bulk of the persuadable voters. How are the Democrats competing on that score? That is the question we will explore in this week’s edition of the House forecast. But first, let’s crunch the numbers and see where the polling data takes us this week. It is a forecast that some will meet with increased pessimism, but above all else, it underscores just how narrow the distinctions are between an underwhelming election night for the Democrats and an utter tsunami. Read more